From Staff Reports
As the hours continue to tick away before Helene makes landfall in northern Florida late Thursday with life-threatening conditions and the potential for widespread extreme property damage, it will strengthen quickly and become a major hurricane, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
As of Wednesday evening, Helene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph sustained winds. However, AccuWeather meteorologists expect Helene to rapidly intensify and gain at least 35 mph in terms of wind strength in less than 24 hours.
Helene is forecast to peak as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph while over the Gulf of Mexico before landfall. Depending on the integrity of the eye wall, Helene could retain that intensity up to the time of landfall Thursday evening.
Hurricane warnings were in effect for the Florida Big Bend area to just north of Tampa, while tropical storm warnings were in effect for much of the rest of the Florida coastline, except for the western part of the Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
"Confidence continues to grow among our experts for a landfall Thursday evening in the Big Bend area of the Florida Gulf Coast, which is the zone from the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle to the northwestern part of the Florida Peninsula," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, "At the time of landfall, Helene is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane."
The Latest on Helene:
LIVE: Hurricane Helene strengthens, Biden declares emergency in Florida
The latest information suggests that landfall may be near Apalachicola, Florida.
There is still some risk the storm may drift a bit to the west or east, but steering breezes are more deliberate with this storm over the Gulf of Mexico compared to some in the past that have shifted their tracks considerably at the last minute.
At landfall Thursday evening - between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. EDT - Helene will have maximum sustained winds of 120-125 mph, with much stronger gusts to at least 140 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 160 mph.
The sustained winds forecast are the intensity of a Category 3, while the gusts forecast are Category 4 and 5, respectively, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The impacts of a hurricane go well beyond its potentially destructive winds. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes incorporates storm surge, flooding, rainfall, population density and economic impacts in addition to maximum winds. Due to complications from torrential rainfall, these impacts occur not only along the coast but hundreds of miles inland.
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The AccuWeather RealImpact for Helene has been raised to 4.
By far, the most dangerous part of a hurricane, as it approaches the coast and makes landfall, is the storm surge. This potentially life-threatening aspect of a hurricane is the height of the water "above" astronomical tides. In a matter of minutes, water can surge with depth and force and lead to drowning.
Because of the shape of the coast, which can trap excess water in the Big Bend area of northern Florida, and the forecast intensity and track of Helene, AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate a storm surge up to the height of a two-story building, or 15-20 feet, Thursday night. At this height, some single-story buildings along the coast may be completely underwater.
However, a significant and dangerous storm surge will extend well to the south and east of where the eye comes ashore. For example, a peak storm surge of 6 to perhaps 10 feet can occur on Thursday night in portions of Tampa Bay, where west winds will cause the water to pile up on the eastern parts of the bay.
Because of strong easterly winds off the Atlantic Ocean, a significant storm surge and coastal flooding are expected from northeastern Florida to Georgia and South Carolina. Portions of Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, could be inundated from Thursday night to Friday.
A tremendous amount of rain will fall in northern Florida, with rain heavy enough to cause travel problems and lead to minor flooding in southern and eastern Florida and the potential for catastrophic flooding in northern Florida, especially the eastern part of the panhandle, with a general 8-12 inches of rain forecast.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for Helene is 24 inches, but may occur hundreds of miles inland of the Gulf coast.
Many hurricanes that make landfall release energy that can trigger severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and waterspouts. Every hurricane is different, but Helene has the potential to spawn multiple tornadoes, especially to the east of its track.
Conditions may cause considerable risk to lives and property even as the storm travels well inland from strong winds and flooding rain in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, western North Carolina, the Virginia Panhandle, eastern Tennessee and perhaps parts of Kentucky and West Virginia.
The dangers range from rapid urban flooding, flash flooding along small streams, significant rises on the rivers and mudslides in the mountainous terrain.
The combination of pouring rain, increasingly wet soil and strong winds will lead to the risk of falling trees, broken tree limbs and widespread power outages.
From the Orange County Newsroom:
The National Weather Service has determined that Orange County is under a Tropical Storm Warning. There are isolated tornado threats that could begin as early as Wednesday evening. The county is expected to see Tropical storm-force winds as early as noon tomorrow, and conditions will deteriorate throughout Thursday.
Weather Conditions:
- Sustained winds of 25-30 mph (gusts as high as 45-55 mph)
- Rain from 1-4 inches
Residents are encouraged to complete their storm preparations by this evening.
SANDBAGS
Orange County Public Works will continue to offer free self-serve sandbags to residents until 7 p.m. this evening, pending severe weather. So far, 13,000 sandbags have been distributed. Locations include:
- Barnett Park: 4801 W. Colonial Drive, Orlando, FL 32808
- Bithlo Community Park: 18501 Washington Avenue, Orlando, FL 32820
- Clarcona Horse Park: 3535 Damon Road, Apopka, FL 32703
- Downey Park: 10107 Flowers Avenue, Orlando, FL 32825
- Meadow Woods Rec Center: 1751 Rhode Island Woods Circle, Orlando, FL 32824
- West Orange Rec Center: 309 S West Crown Point Road, Winter Garden, FL 34787
GARBAGE PICK UP
On Thursday, Sept. 26, Orange County Utilities will NOT collect residential curbside garbage, yard waste, recycling, and large items. The makeup day for customers will be Saturday, Sept. 28. For updated information and resources, visit www.ocfl.net/UtilitiesStormInfo.
SHELTERS
Shelters in Orange County will open tomorrow, Thursday, Sept. 26, at 7:30 a.m., for individuals needing to evacuate or seek shelter from Hurricane Helene. ID cards are not required to enter shelters. Shelters are pet friendly.
- General Population Shelter
- Barnett Park: 4801 W. Colonial Drive, Orlando, FL 32808
- Shelters for Individuals with Special/Medical Needs
- West Orange Rec Center: 309 SW Crown Point Rd, Winter Garden, FL 34787
- Goldenrod Rec Center: 4863 N Goldenrod Rd, Winter Park, FL 32792
- Orange County residents requiring a Special Needs/Medical Shelter please dial 3-1-1 or 407-836-3111.
LYNX will provide free service to shelter locations. Visit ocfl.net/shelters for important information on what to bring with you to a shelter.
POWER OUTAGES
When possible, report power outages to your electric provider in Orange County.
- Orlando Utilities Commission (OUC) – 407-423-9018
- Duke Energy – 800-228-8485
- Winter Park Utility – 877-811-8700
LAKES AND PONDS
- Orlo Vista: Ponds have been pumped down several feet. Public Works contractors have connected four 12” mobile pumps to discharge lines and act as back-up pumps.
- Big Sand Lake: Sediment was removed from the discharge end of the system at Valencia Drainage canal. The outfall system is clean and free of debris.
CLOSURES
- Orange County Government: County offices are closed on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024.
- Orange County Public Schools: Schools will be closed Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. After-school activities will end by 6 p.m. on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024.
- Ninth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida: All courthouses in the Ninth Judicial Circuit are closed on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024.
- Solid Waste Facilities Update: Orange County Landfill and transfer stations will be closed to the public on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024.
- SunRail: SunRail is closed on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024.
