Florida’s Medicaid enrollment continues its downward trend, according to newly released data from the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA), just weeks before the start of the 2025–26 fiscal year.
As of May 30, there were 4,155,487 residents enrolled in the state’s Medicaid program, marking a decrease of 68,110 people since December 2024 and a drop of 643,662 enrollees since January 2024. The shrinking caseload follows the end of federal pandemic-era protections that previously prohibited states from removing ineligible individuals from the Medicaid rolls.
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Florida’s Medicaid caseload reached an all-time high during the 2022–23 fiscal year, with 5,575,548 residents enrolled in the program. That number dropped by 13.3% in the following year, totaling 4,836,670 beneficiaries. Economists have projected the trend will continue, forecasting an average of 4,226,199 Medicaid enrollees during the 2025–26 fiscal year, which begins July 1.
Lawmakers relied on those projections when crafting the new Medicaid budget, which allocates $36.53 billion to the Agency for Health Care Administration, the department that oversees Florida’s Medicaid system.
Florida requires most Medicaid beneficiaries to enroll in managed care plans. As of May, 72% of current enrollees—roughly 3,006,980 people—were part of a Medicaid managed care plan. That figure represents a decrease of 7,682 members since January 2025 and 453,638 since the beginning of 2024.
While the overall reduction aligns with state forecasts, the steady decline in Medicaid enrollment raises ongoing questions about access to healthcare, especially for low-income families, children, and seniors. Health advocates have warned that procedural redeterminations may be causing eligible individuals to lose coverage unnecessarily.
The coming fiscal year will likely be a critical test of how Florida balances budget expectations with the health care needs of its most vulnerable residents.
