From AccuWeather.com
Hurricane Milton at a Glance:
- Families, businesses, emergency officials, and government leaders are being warned to prepare for the increasing risk of catastrophic impacts in the Tampa Bay area
- Widespread damage, extended power outages, and major connectivity issues are expected across much of Florida
- Milton is a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States, which warns of widespread catastrophic flooding, widespread power outages, structural damage to many buildings, and severe coastal inundation AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Oct. 7, 2024 - AccuWeather expert meteorologists are urging people to follow evacuation orders and quickly leave areas vulnerable to storm surge and flooding before Hurricane Milton slams Florida with devastating impacts on Wednesday.
“AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned that Milton can become a 'worst-case" hurricane impact for the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “You do not want to wait for storm surge to start occurring before you take action. We have seen so many preventable tragedies during Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Ian. Please get out of areas at risk of this devastating storm surge while you still can. Hurricane Milton could push up to 23 feet of storm surge into the hardest hit areas. We are very concerned that Hurricane Milton could become one of the most damaging and costliest storms that Florida has ever seen.”
"Slight variations in Milton’s track can have major ramifications for the impacts experienced in various parts of Florida. For example, in a scenario which now appears more probable, should an intense Milton track just north of Tampa, storm surges of 23 feet could occur in parts of Tampa Bay, resulting in widespread, catastrophic damage not seen in this part of Tampa Bay in modern history,” Porter warned. “Should Milton track a bit farther south and make landfall south of Tampa, the storm surge in Tampa Bay can remain dangerous, but not as extreme. Such a track would also greatly increase the risk for significant, damaging water inundation in areas that experienced widespread destruction from Hurricane Ian’s storm surge, especially areas near Fort Myers, Naples and Charlotte Harbor. Many of the sand dunes and other natural protection have been destroyed during Helene. That means storm surge impacts from Milton could be even more significant.”
Porter says widespread wind damage, flooding, rainfall, and the threat of spin-up tornadoes will affect heavily populated areas from Tampa and Orlando to Daytona Beach.
“Our forecast for 120 mph to 140 mph wind gusts will result in significant destruction. We expect roofs to fail, as well as long-lasting and widespread power outages. These damaging winds will push inland right along the Interstate 4 corridor,” said Porter. “The entire corridor from Tampa to Orlando and Daytona Beach needs to prepare for widespread and long-lasting power outages, infrastructure damage, and cell phone signal issues. Flash flooding will be a major issue across Florida. The sandy soil can absorb a lot of rainfall, but rainfall rates of 2, 3 or even 4 inches an hour will be too much to handle, especially for drainage systems in urban areas.”
Damage from the surge and wind can be compounded for areas flooded by Helene, as much of the debris is still in place and will be picked up by flood waters and turned into projectiles by the wind. Also, some structures weakened by the flooding, or partially damaged by the flooding, from Helene will be more susceptible to the flooding from Milton.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva says Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified at extreme levels over exceptionally warm waters that reach hundreds of feet deep in the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico.
"The ocean heat content is at the highest level on record for this time of year in the gulf, despite the recent passage of Helene," added AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. "The deep, warm waters have acted like rocket fuel for Milton, supporting rapid intensification."
Hurricane Milton exploded into a Category 5 hurricane late Monday morning. AccuWeather expert meteorologists are urging people to prepare for catastrophic impacts, even though Hurricane Milton is expected to slightly lose wind intensity and may have a reduced rating on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at the time of landfall on Wednesday.
“We do not want people to see a reduction in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rating for Milton before landfall and think there will be less danger. In fact, there’s even more danger because the storm will broaden out and increase in size, with a larger risk of life-threatening storm surge and powerful winds impacting more places and people across Florida.,” Porter explained. “Hurricane Milton could become the next once-in-a-generation storm for millions of people across Florida. That is the second time we’ve had to warn people of a once-in-a-generation storm in just the past two weeks. We have three hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. This is the first time we’ve seen the tropics this active outside of the month of September. This is yet another reminder of how impactful and significant this year’s hurricane season has been.”
With the increasing risk of wind and water damage, storm surge inundation, tornadoes and extended power outages, AccuWeather expert meteorologists are urging people in evacuation zones along the Gulf Coast to leave by Monday night.
“We will likely see situations after the storm where it’s clear that evacuations were not necessary, but safety must come first. It takes a lot of time and resources to evacuate this many people. You do not want to find yourself in a situation where it’s too late to take action to save your life and protect your family,” warned Porter. “This is a very unusual storm track, especially for October. We really don’t have any other storms in modern times to compare hurricane to.”
Rainfall totals can reach up to 12 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches across parts of the Gulf Coast and central Florida. This heavy rain can lead to widespread flooding near the center of the storm. This can cause extensive flooding and standing water for days.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say wind gusts of 60-80 mph can occur across much of central and South Florida. Wind gusts can reach 120-140 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 165 mph in the area where the center of circulation makes landfall.
Due to catastrophic rainfall, destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge, Milton is a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States.
A 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes warns of widespread catastrophic flooding, flooding that may last days to weeks, widespread power outages, structural damage to many buildings and severe coastal inundation.
