By Reggie Connell, Managing Editor
In Summary:
In Part 1 of a two-part election analysis, Apopka’s mayoral race emerges as the centerpiece of a crowded 2026 ballot, with three candidates offering sharply different visions for City Hall. Apopka Mayor Bryan Nelson is running on continuity and fiscal progress, Orange County Commissioner Christine Moore is campaigning on experience and a critique of decision-making at City Hall, and Apopka City Commissioner Nick Nesta is positioning himself as a transparency-and-planning “reset” candidate backed by a major endorsement.
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A few months ago, I wrote an article calling for Apopka residents to run for office. I didn’t want to see another elected official run unopposed. Then, lo and behold, you answered the call in near-record numbers.
After two qualifying weeks, 10 candidates are running for four seats. This is the first time in the post–John Land era that four seats on the City Council are up for election at once, and only the second time 10 candidates have qualified for the ballot. Congratulations, Apopka. Nobody gets a free ride to the City Council this year.
Related: Nelson, Nesta, and Moore qualify for the mayoral ballot.
Now, let’s see who’s going to win.
We all know incumbents are tough to beat. Nationwide, around 90% of municipal incumbents win re-election. But Apopka has never followed the national script. Between 2014 and 2018, eight straight incumbents lost. Then, from 2020 through 2024, the pendulum swung back the other way — five straight incumbents held their seats.
So, which Apopka shows up in 2026?
It’s conceivable we could see four new faces on the dais if the three incumbents lose. It’s also possible the Council looks a lot like it does now. And yes — for the first time in city history, it’s possible Apopka could end up with four women serving on the Council.
This column is Part 1 of a two-part analysis of Apopka’s 2026 elections. Today, I focus on the mayor’s race. Later this week, I’ll break down the three commission contests.
No matter who wins this mayoral election, it will set precedents. I would say ‘set records’, but legendary Apopka Mayor John Land has already set them all. He is the youngest (29), the oldest (94), and the longest-standing mayor (61 years) in Apopka’s history.
That’s why his statue sits outside City Hall.
But for the mere mortals who are running in 2026, some noteworthy accomplishments could happen. If Nelson is re-elected, he will be the longest-serving mayor in Apopka history outside of John Land. Two men, Andrew Jackson Lovell (1896 to 1905 and 1913) and Joseph D. Mitchill (1905-1912, and 1920-2023) each served 10 years, the longest outside Land. If he wins and serves out his term, Nelson would eclipse them with 12 years in office (2018-2030).
Nesta, at age 35, would be the youngest sitting mayor in Orange County if he wins, while Moore would be the first female mayor in Apopka’s history if she is elected.
Nelson's Platform: Continuity with fiscal results — but a contentious turn
Nelson is running for a third term on a record he says is defined by measurable progress and fiscal discipline.
In his most recent State of the City address, and in several Facebook ads, he highlighted a city government that has improved its financial footing, citing a 96% reduction in general fund debt and emphasizing investments in infrastructure, public safety, and long-term planning. His platform is the classic incumbent case: Apopka is moving forward, and continuity matters.
In municipal elections — where turnout is often low, and the electorate tends to be older and more consistent — that can be a decisive advantage.
More on turnout later.
But just a couple of weeks ago, this race took a sharp turn, changing the emotional temperature of the campaign. Nelson shocked Apopka by filing a lawsuit seeking to remove Moore from the ballot, alleging she failed to meet Apopka’s one-year residency requirement and that her qualifying paperwork raised a technical issue. Moore denies the allegations and said that the lawsuit is politically motivated.
No matter how the case ends in court, it already matters politically. It changes what the election is about and becomes an issue in debates and on the campaign trail. It forces voters to interpret not just policy differences, but motives, and in a three-way race, that could be decisive.
As is always the case, Nelson is well-funded, has a base of support, and will most likely send mailers to Apopka residents in late February, either from his campaign or from a mysterious Tallahassee PAC, tearing into one or both of his opponents. He will also have to overcome intense negative feelings on local social media and at public comments during City Council meetings.
Moore’s Platform: Turning experience into action, and a direct critique of City Hall’s process
Moore has built her campaign around a plan to fix what’s broken, then build what’s possible.
“We can fix the streets, the infrastructure, and then dream big,” Moore said in an interview with The Apopka Voice. “Apopka deserves both.”
Moore is running as a veteran of large-scale government, pointing to her experience and track record on the Orange County Commission.
“I’ve been involved with an $8 billion budget,” Moore said. “Every department works through their budgets with me… I still carry the responsibility.”
But Moore’s sharpest contrast isn’t only about outcomes — it’s about process and respect. She says Apopka’s decision-making has too often become rushed and top-down.
“How constantly does Mayor (Bryan) Nelson spring something on the commissioners for a final vote that they never even heard about till Friday afternoon before a Wednesday meeting?” Moore said. “If you’re gonna do big things, there should be a workshop process that starts at least a month out… It’s not sneaking things in.”
Moore’s campaign is not just a list of policy ideas. It’s a critique of a governing style — one she believes has drifted away from transparency, planning, and citizen engagement.
Moore’s campaign is also well-funded, going toe-to-toe with Nelson’s fundraising efforts. She was the first to announce her intention to run for mayor, and she also has a base of support and a team of volunteers to drive turnout.
She, too, needs to address negative comments on social media and overcome Nelson’s lawsuit, both politically and practically.
Nesta’s Platform: Transparency, planning, and a reset, now strengthened by a major endorsement
Nesta entered the mayor’s race in December and built his candidacy around transparency, planning, and a reset at City Hall — an argument rooted in the belief that residents are frustrated not only with growth pressures but also with how decisions are made.
“After going through this final budget season of just absolute confusion and chaos and questions that never got answers... and no ability to answer them,” Nesta said in an interview with The Apopka Voice. “Especially after the water rate increases, when we really could not have done that increase, it just became so glaringly obvious that a big change is needed—and now is the time.”
That message was reinforced when former vice mayor and commissioner Kyle Becker endorsed Nesta for mayor, further strengthening his claim to be a candidate with governing legitimacy.
Nesta’s platform is ultimately about culture as much as policy — the idea that Apopka needs a different tone at the top, a different approach to decision-making, and a more deliberate strategy for managing growth.
But Nesta also enters this race facing a hard reality of municipal politics: momentum is real, but it isn’t permanent. And at this stage, Nelson and Moore are well ahead of him in two areas that tend to decide city elections — fundraising and campaign infrastructure. Nesta has visibility and energy, but he is still in the phase of building — and if he wants to do more than compete for attention, he will need to fundraise quickly, scale his operation, and define his platform in a way that breaks through against two candidates who are already running fully built campaigns.
Nesta can’t rely on momentum forever. If he’s going to have a true path to victory, he has to build fast.
Turnout may be the real deciding factor — especially with new residents
Here’s the reality of municipal politics: most people don’t vote in city elections. That means turnout becomes the driving factor in the election’s outcome.
In 2018, Nelson received 4,103 votes, with a turnout of 6,472. In 2022, Nelson’s total dropped to 3,601 while turnout increased to 6,708. Obviously, the trend of Nelson getting fewer votes while turnout increases is not sustainable, so he needs to hold on to his base while hoping turnout does not increase dramatically. That’s the formula for successful incumbents across the country, but it also creates a narrow window for potentially winning outcomes.
Nelson’s real target on Election Day
In Apopka, a candidate must win 50% plus one vote to take the mayor’s seat outright in the general election. If no one reaches that threshold, which is likely in a three-candidate race, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election in April, and the contest becomes a head-to-head battle.
But there’s another layer to that math, especially for the incumbent.
In a three-way race, Nelson has two viable paths to a third term. The first is the cleanest: win outright on Election Day by reaching 50% plus one vote and avoid a runoff altogether. The second is to land around 47% to 49% of the votes in the general election. This gives him a stronger chance of surviving a head-to-head runoff, where anti-incumbent voters who split between Moore and Nesta in March are likely to consolidate behind whichever challenger advances. If Nelson finishes the first round in the low 40s or below, the runoff becomes a far more dangerous prospect, because the challenger only needs to unify the anti-Nelson vote — and in a one-on-one race, that becomes much easier than it is in a three-way contest.
And to further complicate matters, Apopka’s electorate is changing.
In the last four years, the city has absorbed waves of new residents, many of whom live in neighborhoods built during the very debates over growth that dominate City Council meetings and Facebook posts. These residents may not have voted in previous elections, may not know the city’s political history, and may not have fixed loyalty to any candidate. But they do experience the day-to-day impacts of growth: traffic, utility bills, school crowding, road conditions, and the question of whether the city’s identity is keeping pace with its expansion.
That makes “new voters” the single biggest wildcard in the race.
Low, predictable turnout tends to favor incumbents. Expanded turnout tends to benefit challengers.
With weeks still ahead, the race remains fluid. There are still at least two mayoral debates, and plenty of time for things to shift, but the central truth is already emerging:
Apopka’s mayoral election may be decided by who Apopka is becoming, and who actually turns out to vote. Will it be the traditional 20% turnout of established voters? Or will a new Apopka voter emerge?
Key Points:
- Apopka has 10 candidates running for four seats, setting up one of the most competitive municipal election cycles in years.
- The mayor’s race features three candidates: Bryan Nelson, Christine Moore, and Nick Nesta.
- Nelson is campaigning on continuity and fiscal results, but the lawsuit against Moore has changed the tone and stakes of the race.
- Moore is running on government experience and a process-focused critique of City Hall’s decision-making.
- Nesta has momentum and a major endorsement, but trails in fundraising and infrastructure as the election approaches.
