By Reggie Connell, Managing Editor
At first glance, it looks as though Election Day in Apopka will focus more on statewide and national races than an extensive slate of municipal and county contests.
In previous cycles, the first Tuesday in November has been a hotbed of activity in Apopka and Orange County. With presidential, gubernatorial, senatorial, state house and senate, county commissioners, school board members, and the occasional
municipal special election on the ballot, Apopka voters usually have several contests to determine.
But in 2024, only one race with direct connections to local residents is on the ballot - State House District 39.
Both candidates, incumbent Rep. Doug Bankson (Republican) and challenger Marsha Summersill (Democrat) have ties to Apopka, and the district itself entails all of the city, which is the lynchpin to victory.
However, there may be more to this district than a single seat in the Florida House.
The outcome could be a very early indicator of how the rest of the night may go, both statewide and in the presidential election.
I'm sure some of you are scratching your heads trying to figure out how a race for the Florida Legislature could have implications for who wins the Florida Senate and presidential races, but hear me out...
In 2020, before the district existed, President Joe Biden carried what would become District 39 by a small margin - similar to his popular vote. The district mirrored the national number, although then-President Donald Trump carried Florida with 51.2% of the vote.
In 2022, its first election as an official district, Bankson defeated Democrat Tiffany Hughes with approximately 55% of the vote on a night that weighed heavily in favor of Republicans in Florida.
Bankson's 55% fell within Governor Ron DeSantis' margin in District 39 (59%), and Senator Marco Rubio's tally of 53%. But more importantly, DeSantis' 59% in District 39 was also his statewide winning margin (59.4%).
Rubio's slightly lower margin (57.7 statewide vs. 53% in District 39) may be attributed to running against Orange County resident Val Demings, who served as the US House District 10 Representative (which included Apopka and other parts of 39) from 2017-2022.
In 2024, just take a look at the registered voters in this district...
HD 39 is comprised of approximately 42,500 Republicans, 40,300 Democrats, and 36,800 voters with no party affiliation. It's a true battleground, at least in voter makeup.
If Bankson were to mirror his 2022 margin and win with 55% of the vote, that would bode well for Scott, who currently leads his opponent, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, between
2-4% in the last five polls posted on the news site Real Clear Politics, and for Trump, who leads his opponent Vice President Kamala Harris between
4-10% in the last five Florida polls.
But if Summersill were to upset the incumbent or even close the gap and lose narrowly, that could signal a night that may favor Democrats statewide and nationally.
Yes, District 39 could be an early bellwether for what is likely to be a long night or even a long week of results-watching.
Far removed from the idea of bellwethers are Bankson and Summersill, who are still hard at work on the campaign trail.
"It’s been a new challenge this election cycle as an incumbent both doing the job and running an election, but we have had an amazing team and are seeing a tremendous response meeting the constituents as we finish these final couple days," Bankson said. "I will be campaigning right up to the closing bell, and ready to go to work if elected again to serve the needs of our district and of the great state of Florida."
"The final days and hours before the election are filled with connecting to as many voters as possible," said Summersill. "My team is focused on GOTV (get out the vote). I am broadening those efforts by continuing to connect with moderates, NPAs, and undecided voters from across the political spectrum. It is important to ensure everyone has a voice in how our state governs, not just one party or a limited perspective. My team and I are canvassing, engaging with voters, answering questions, and making sure we exhaust all efforts to encourage everyone to be heard through their vote. My thoughts are centered on the tasks. I am steadfast in ensuring I work diligently and consistently through November 5th."
The polls in Apopka and all of Florida close on Tuesday at 7 pm.
