By Steve Wilson, The Center Square
A report released Tuesday says Florida's population could grow by 1.4 million people by 2030, and cautions that inflation's effects could linger into 2027.
The quarterly economic performance report by the nonprofit, nonpartisan Florida TaxWatch group examined key trends in population growth, employment, income, GDP, and tourism, and predicts that the state's economy could encounter some headwinds by 2027 before recovering by 2030.
Florida TaxWatch executive vice president and general counsel Jeff Kottkamp said in a release that he is "cautiously optimistic that Florida’s economy will remain strong through 2030."
"Overall, Florida’s economic growth pattern will match or surpass the national economic growth pattern in most economic indicators for the next five years, including population and net migration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism," Kottkamp said.
A summary of Florida's economic forecast by Florida TaxWatch.
The report predicts that while the state's population will continue to increase, the number of people moving to Florida each day is projected to decrease from 982 in 2024 to 789 in 2030.
Among the reasons cited by the report for the reduction are rising property and automobile insurance costs, increased frequency of severe weather events such as hurricanes, and a rising cost of living.
The state's real gross domestic product growth is predicted to slow from 3.6% in 2024 to 2.1% by 2030, while the number of Floridians with jobs will increase from 10 million in 2024 to 10.9 million by 2030.
The state's unemployment rate is predicted to increase from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.6% by 2030. The report states that its projection has changed compared to its fourth-quarter report for 2024, which showed a consistent increase until 2030.
The new report shows a steady increase until 2027, followed by a gradual decline by 2030.
Personal income growth is predicted to level off as well, going from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.1% in 2030.
The report also predicts that the state's tourism industry, which it says creates 2.1 million jobs and saves each household $1,910 annually in state and local taxes, will have steady growth after three years of record numbers.
Florida welcomed a record 142.9 million visitors in 2024 and the report predicts that number will increase to nearly 186 million by 2030.
Florida Taxwatch used data provided by the Regional Economic Consulting Group, a research-based consulting firm that partners with the nonprofit, to reach its forecasts.
