At N.C. At State University, the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences teamed with the Department of Computer Science to project six to nine named storms from 12 to 15, with two to three deemed major. At Colorado State University, the Department of Atmospheric Science predicts six hurricanes from 13 named storms, with two likely major.
Related: Orange County receives $150,000 grant to add financial-stability resources to its emergency response plan.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was remarkable, as it was the first since 2015 with none making landfall. In August, Erin brought significant coastal damage along the East Coast, and Tropical Storm Chantal was the lone system making landfall when it damaged the Carolinas in July.
Hurricanes Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Melissa were major hurricanes, and Hurricane Imelda was the fifth hurricane of the season. Thirteen storms earned names.
Dr. Lian Xie, professor at N.C. State predicts two to five named storms forming in the Gulf, with one or two becoming hurricanes, and one major. The Caribbean Sea is predicted to be the origin for one to two hurricanes, of which one would be major.
Xie said he uses more than 100 years of historical data on the Atlantic Ocean, weather patterns, and sea-surface temperatures to arrive at his forecast.
At Colorado State, the summary forecast says in part, “We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.”
Hurricanes are generally described using the wind scale known as the Saffir-Simpson scale. It doesn’t account for storm surge or rainfall, two factors that contribute significantly to death tolls and property damage estimates.
The scale is Category 1 for maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph; Category 2 for maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph; Category 3 for maximum sustained winds of 111-129 mph; Category 4 for maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph; and Category 5 for maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or greater.
Categories 3, 4, and 5 are deemed major.
The National Weather Center earlier released names to be used this year, as maintained and updated through a strict procedure by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. They will be Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.
The list rotates and is recycled every six years, sans changes due to retirements, storm fatalities, or cost. These names are next up in 2032.
Key Points:
- Two major forecasting groups project 6 to 9 hurricanes and 12 to 15 named storms for 2026.
- Between 2 and 3 storms could reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
- A shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions may suppress overall storm activity.
- The 2025 season saw no hurricane landfalls, an unusual occurrence.
- Experts warn that the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale does not account for flooding or storm surge, major contributors to damage.
