By Merrilee Gasser, The Center Square
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Florida’s latest Long-Range Financial Outlook projects a $7.1 billion surplus in 2027-28 and a $3.4 billion surplus the following year. By 2029-30, however, state spending is expected to exceed available general revenue by slightly more than $1 billion. The report also identifies hurricanes, federal funding changes, constitutional amendments, inflation and weaker household finances as risks.
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Florida’s spending is expected to outpace available general fund revenue by $1 billion, according to the state’s Long-Range Financial Outlook report released Friday.
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While the next two years are projected to see a surplus in the general revenue fund, a deficit is projected for fiscal years 2029-2039, with state expenditures exceeding available funds by more than $1 billion.
The Legislative Budget Commission's annual report offers a deeper look at Florida’s fiscal position, with projections as far out as 2030.
Revenue adjustments have reduced the projected general fund, the report says. Tax and fee adjustments, as well as trust fund transfers and redirects, mean a $440 million decrease in fiscal year 2027-2028. The decrease continues each year, with a projected $855.1 million decrease in fiscal year 2028-2029 and nearly $1.3 billion in fiscal year 2029-2030.
The legislature’s actions during session earlier this year improved the state’s financial position compared to 2025’s long-range financial outlook, the report said.
A surplus of $7.1 billion is projected for fiscal year 2027-2028, and $3.4 billion for the following year.
“Reduced spending levels combined with a modest level of revenue adjustments for Fiscal Year 2026-27 had ripple effects throughout the Outlook that led to the improved ending balances,” the report said. “Despite these gains, the 2026 Outlook projects a deficit of just over $1.0 billion in Fiscal Year 2029-30.”
Revenue adjustments will be needed to avoid the $1 billion deficit, the report noted.
It also tracked risks to the state’s financial outlook like hurricanes, federal funding for Medicaid and other federal programs, and the potential impact of constitutional amendments.
The report comes as the state’s economic outlook is signaling increased financial restraints for residents.
“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated from this point forward. Economic pressures are still evident in reduced household savings, increased use of consumer credit, and persistently elevated inflation. How these economic challenges ultimately unfold will be pivotal to the actual performance of Florida’s economy over the next few years,” the report said.
The state’s GDP is projected to be 2.5% for fiscal year 2025-2026, down from 3.3%. That downward trend is expected to continue, hitting 2% in 2026 before climbing to 2.7% the following year, according to the Florida Economic Estimating Conference.
Florida’s population growth, highlighted as a driver of economic growth, is expected to grow by an average of 1.20% per year between 2026 and 2030 and exceed 24 million residents in 2027.
Key Points:
- Florida is projected to have a $7.1 billion surplus in fiscal year 2027-28.
- The projected surplus falls to $3.4 billion the following year.
- A general revenue deficit exceeding $1 billion is projected for 2029-30.
- Revenue adjustments are expected to reduce available funds by nearly $1.3 billion in 2029-30.
- Slower economic growth, inflation, and uncertainty over federal funding could affect the outlook.
