By Jay Waagmeester, Florida Phoenix
In Summary:
The U.S. Department of Agriculture increased Florida’s orange production forecast to 12.2 million boxes in its April update, a 2% rise from January. While that marks a modest improvement, the total still trails last season and reflects a steep long-term decline tied to citrus greening and extreme weather. Forecasts for grapefruit, lemons, and tangerines also rose, even as recent freezes and hurricanes continue to impact agricultural output statewide.
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Florida’s orange production forecast looks a little brighter this quarter.
Compared to January’s citrus forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s April production forecast for oranges rose by 2%.
Related: Orange Soil and Water District proclaims 2026 as Year of the Woman Farmer.
The increase in oranges represents 200,000 more boxes, from January’s projected 12 million boxes to April’s 12.2 million. If the forecast comes true, the 2025-2026 harvest will result in 1% less production than the previous season, which produced 12.28 million boxes.
In 2023-2024, the state produced more than 18 million boxes. In 2004, the state produced more than 240 million boxes of oranges. The decline over the years is attributed largely to citrus greening and severe weather.
Three hurricanes battered Florida in the second half of 2024, putting expected agricultural losses at nearly $1 billion at the time.
This quarter’s grapefruit forecast production is up by 4%, putting expected production at 1.25 million boxes. Lemon production is up 29%, with an expected total of 900,000 boxes. Tangerine and tangelo production is up by 13%.
In early 2026, the state experienced freezing temperatures. Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson estimated those freezes could drop agricultural production by $3 billion. Those losses included citrus, tomatoes, strawberries, watermelons, sugarcane, greenhouse plants, and more.
The freezes happened Dec. 30-Jan. 1 and Jan 26-Feb. 4. During which 66 of 67 counties in the state experienced multiple hours of freezing temperatures.
Key Points:
- USDA’s April forecast increased Florida orange production by 2% to 12.2 million boxes.
- The total is still about 1% lower than last season’s 12.28 million boxes.
- Florida produced more than 18 million boxes in 2023-2024 and over 240 million in 2004.
- Grapefruit (+4%), lemons (+29%), and tangerines/tangelos (+13%) also saw forecast increases.
- Recent hurricanes and statewide freezes are expected to cause billions in agricultural losses.
