By Steve Wilson, Center Square
A report released by the nonprofit Florida TaxWatch says an undercount of Florida residents during the 2020 Census could result in less federal highway funding for the state.
For the Florida Department of Transportation, $92.53 billion in federal funds for fiscal year 2021 were affected by the census count.
According to the report, Florida was one of six states with a statistically significant census undercount, which resulted in the addition of 750,000 residents, or 3.48% of its total population. That data came from the Florida Data Science for Social Good at the University of North Florida.
The U.S. Census count is used for two purposes: to apportion Congressional seats and allocate federal funding for more than 350 programs. According to the report, the undercount cost the state at least one and possibly two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and could result in the loss of up to $21 billion in federal funding through the end of the decade.
Florida TaxWatch executive vice president and general counsel Jeff Kottkamp said that transportation projects comprise 13% of the state's budget and are a big-ticket item for Florida taxpayers.
"As the state aims to budget adequate funding for transportation projects, an accurate census count is essential to draw down federal dollars that rightfully belong to the state of Florida," Kottkamp said.
Florida TaxWatch used two grant programs, the Surface Transportation Block Grant and the Urbanized Area Formula Grant, for its analysis. In 2024, the state received $718.3 million from the STBG program, with $616.4 million available for allocations statewide. The state can appropriate 45% of those funds ($277.4 million), while the remainder ($339 million) is distributed by population.
The group highlighted one area where even a minor undercount could have a significant impact on federal funding, particularly with the Urbanized Area Formula Grant program.
The Port Charlotte-North Port metropolitan area had a census count of 199,998, representing a 2.1% undercount compared to the adjusted population of 204,251.
While that isn't a significant figure, greater allocations of federal funds are available ($273 million vs. $23 million) for urbanized areas with populations greater than 200,000 residents. The area could have received $3 million in federal grants for transportation projects, but would have forfeited funds for smaller urban areas.
The report also said that the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro area, which includes Broward and Miami-Dade counties, was undercounted by 4.87% and 7%, respectively. The report states that federal funding for this urbanized area increased by 20.4% because its population growth outpaced that of others in its population tier nationally.
The authors state that the area still received fewer funds than its population would have warranted if the undercounting had been reduced.
The impact on Orange County
Orange County was directly affected by Florida’s 2020 Census undercount, similar to other urbanized regions in the state. According to the Census Bureau, census data determine how federal funding is allocated to local programs—ranging from roads and emergency services to schools and parks apnews.com+7lakeonews.com+7thecensusproject.org+7. With Florida missing approximately 750,000 residents in the count—a 3.48% undercount—local jurisdictions like Orange County potentially lost millions in federal dollars over the decade, including through transportation grants tied to population thresholds.
Although precise figures for Orange County aren’t singled out in the Florida TaxWatch report, the county’s status as a major urban hub suggests it shared in the funding shortfall within both the Surface Transportation Block Grant and the Urbanized Area Formula Grant programs. For example, areas like Port Charlotte-North Port lost out because their populations fell just below 200,000—a cutoff that dramatically reduces available funds thecensusproject.org. Similarly, Orange County’s undercount would have lowered its share of federal dollars for transportation, infrastructure, and community services.
In short, the undercount translated into tangible budget impacts for Orange County—less federal transportation funding, reduced support for schools, roads, and emergency services, and potentially fewer seats allocated in Congress. It underscores the critical importance of an accurate census for ensuring Central Florida, including Orange County, receives its fair share of federal support.
To download the report, go here.
Editor's Note: The “Impact on Orange County” section of this article was produced with the assistance of ChatGPT, an AI language model, to help with content, research, drafting, and editing. All content has been reviewed and verified for accuracy by The Apopka Voice editorial team.
