From AccuWeather.com
Key takeaways:
•Milton is poised to make landfall within a few dozen miles of St. Petersburg along the west-central coast of Florida late Wednesday night as a major hurricane.
•A life-threatening and highly destructive storm surge will occur near and just south of where the eye moves ashore.
•Flooding rainfall and damaging wind gusts will occur in many areas of the Florida Peninsula with hurricane conditions throughout the I-4 corridor.
Hurricane Milton will remain a powerful, potentially deadly and destructive force as it roars ashore in the Florida Peninsula along the central Gulf coast around 2 a.m. EDT Thursday, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to warn.
Milton intensified rapidly and nearly tripled in strength in less than 36 hours from Sunday to Monday, eventually becoming a Category 5 with winds of 180 mph while spinning off Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Category 5 is the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
"Some changes within the eye caused the storm's peak wind intensity to ease on Monday night, but as anticipated, some regaining of strength has occurred on Tuesday afternoon," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Milton regained Category 5 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.
"On Wednesday, as Milton encounters some dry air, wind shear, and perhaps another eyewall replacement cycle, it is forecast to expand in size and lose some wind intensity before making landfall as a formidable Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale late at night or early Thursday morning."
However, hurricane experts continue to maintain that Milton will strike with the impacts of a 5 on AccuWeather's RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, which takes into account storm surge, flooding rainfall, population affected, and economic impacts above and beyond the Saffir-Simpson scale, which takes into account only maximum sustained winds.
Only if Milton's peak winds ease more than anticipated with a less-defined eye or should Milton track into a low population zone farther to the south along the Florida coast would the RealImpact scale be less than a 5.
The RealImpact of 5 has only been designated for storms such as Sandy, Katrina and Harvey, so this truly would be a once-in-a-lifetime event for the millions of people in the Tampa-St.Petersburg-Sarasota area.
By far, the most dangerous aspect of Milton as it approaches the Gulf coast of the Florida Peninsula will be storm surge. Because of the near-perpendicular angle at which Milton will roar ashore, the storm surge will be maximized along the barrier islands and funneled into the many inland bays in the region.
“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the west-central Florida coast and the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, "For many, Milton may be a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane in terms of severity."
A record storm surge can occur near and just to the south of where the eye moves ashore. At this time, a storm surge of 15-20 feet is forecast for Tampa Bay, as well as the Sarasota and St. Petersburg, Florida areas. The storm surge will drop off significantly north of where the eye rolls in but can be delayed and build after the storm moves inland.
Significant, dangerous and damaging water rise will occur well to the south of where the eye rolls in with a storm surge of 10-15 feet from Venice to Cape Coral and Fort Myers, Florida, and 6-10 feet possible in Naples and Marco Island, Florida.
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Any southward shift in the track by a few miles could take some of the edge off the level of storm surge north of the eye. Correspondingly, any northward shift in the track could bring the highest surge into some communities where less extreme levels were originally forecast.
"Near and just south of where the eye rolls in around 2 a.m. EDT Thursday, some barrier islands and coastal mainland communities may experience extensive damage and may be altered permanently," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologists Bernie Rayno said. "That's how bad Milton can be."
AccuWeather meteorologists and government officials warn that because of the expected level of inundation, those in an evacuation zone who do not leave will be putting their lives at serious risk. The storm surge anticipated in some communities will be to the level of one- and two-story buildings and can reach that level with tremendous force in a matter of a few minutes.
Large floating objects along the coast will act as battering rams in storm surge areas.
"This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the west-central Florida coast and the Tampa Bay area."
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter
Shifting winds from the southwest to the west then the northwest may keep water levels elevated even many hours after Milton moves inland.
Winds reaching the strength of a Category 3 hurricane (111-129 mph) with gusts of 140-160 mph will cause extensive damage and destruction to older homes and buildings. Loose objects and piles of debris will become projectiles.
As Milton approaches the Florida coast Wednesday and makes landfall late Wednesday night, it will grow in size, and its tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds will spread out.
"We expect hurricane conditions throughout the Interstate 4 corridor which will be close to the track of Milton as it moves inland," Porter warned. Major metro areas that can expect the impacts of a hurricane include Orlando, Winter Haven and Daytona Beach.
Widespread tree and power line damage will occur, with millions likely to be without power. Some of the power outages may last many days to weeks in the hardest-hit areas, especially since some of the distant utility crews that would typically assist for Milton are still working on restoring power in the wake of Helene over northern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Another damaging and disruptive aspect of Milton will be tremendous rainfall. While the forward speed of the hurricane will limit the duration of the heaviest downpours, rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour can occur, which are more than enough to overwhelm storm drains and flood low-lying areas despite Florida's sandy soil.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect a broad area where 8-12 inches of rain will pour down over the central and northern parts of the Florida Peninsula, but within this zone, pockets of 12-24 inches of rain will occur with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 30 inches.
This magnitude of rain will raise creeks, lakes, and rivers in the region. Many of the large rivers are considered to be slow-flowing and near sea level, so it could take many days and even weeks for waters to recede completely.
A storm surge near the coast and heavy rainfall occurring at almost the same time may cause a double-whammy of freshwater and storm surge flooding in some communities.
As is the case with any hurricane that makes landfall, the energy release often triggers severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes even dozens to hundreds of miles away from the eye.
Tornadoes (and waterspouts) are possible as Milton approaches and travels across the Florida Peninsula from late Wednesday to Thursday.
In the wake of Milton, a sweep of cooler, less humid air not experienced since last spring will occur later this week, which may assist those in storm recovery and cleanup operations where power is out.
