By Jeremy Merchant
As you might have read towards the end of 2024, there has been a rapid population growth that has been reshaping the entire Florida housing market, with key metro areas experiencing a large influx of new residents.
Countless factors make Florida a highly-desirable destination, driven by tax benefits, new job opportunities, and an extremely desirable climate. All of these factors continue to attract both domestic and international homebuyers, young and old.
As a result, housing trends are evolving, impacting affordability, inventory, and homebuyer demographics. With this continuing change in Florida's housing market and the growing migration to Florida, we will be diving into how these factors affect real estate trends and who is buying homes in the state.
Florida’s Population Growth: What’s driving the surge?
Building off a strong 2024, Florida continues to see an influx of new residents, making it one of the fastest-growing states in the country.
But what exactly is fueling this surge? From tax incentives to job growth and weather appeal, the influences seem almost endless when it comes to the migration patterns reshaping Florida’s housing market.
The Sunshine State has long been a top destination for relocation, primarily for retirees, but recent years have seen an unprecedented surge in migration. Florida’s population has grown by 1.6% annually, surpassing 23 million residents in 2024, making it one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S.
Several factors contribute to this growth, which we have already covered earlier. Compared to states like New York and California, Florida offers a more affordable cost of living, making it attractive to retirees, remote workers, and young professionals looking to lay down their roots.
The state’s job market is also expanding rapidly, with an unemployment rate of just 2.8% as of early 2024, well below the national average.
With a mild climate and year-round outdoor recreational opportunities, Florida remains a preferred destination for those seeking a higher quality of life, many of which are relocating from similar climates such as Texas and California.
What is the fastest-growing metro area in Florida?
While impressively large, Florida’s population growth is not evenly distributed.
Some metro areas are expanding at an unprecedented rate when compared to the rest. Cities like Tampa and Lakeland-Winter Haven are seeing a housing boom much more significant than other regions, as thousands of new residents relocate, seeking job opportunities and an overall better quality of life.
Tampa: A booming real estate market
While this seems like old news by now, Tampa’s growth continues to be one of the most impressive when it comes to metro areas, adding approximately 51,600 new residents in the past year.
This population growth has driven up home prices as well, with the median home price in Tampa reaching $425,000 in early 2025, marking a 7% increase year-over-year.
In many cases, buyers are facing bidding wars, and inventory remains low despite an increase in new construction projects in and around Tampa, such as Southern Hills Plantation and Rose Haven.
Tampa’s suburban areas only continue to expand rapidly as homebuyers seek more affordable options outside the city center.
While mortgage rates and rising home prices are certainly influencing demand, Tampa remains a top choice for young professionals and families looking for a balance between urban convenience and suburban living.
Lakeland-Winter Haven: The 4% growth trend
Strategically located between Tampa and Orlando, the Lakeland-Winter Haven region is also seeing quite the surge in population due to its appealing affordability. Lakeland's population has grown by 4% over the past year, making it one of the fastest-growing areas in Florida alongside Tampa.
With home prices still lower than in major metro areas, this area does a great job attracting first-time homebuyers and retirees looking for cost-effective housing. With the median home price in Lakeland-Winter Haven falling at around $315,000, we’re looking at a 5% year-over-year increase.
There has also been a significant amount of infrastructure development in the area, including improved transportation and retail expansion, which has only added to Lakeland-Winter Haven’s appeal.
Real estate trends indicate that new home construction is on the rise here as well as in Tampa, helping to meet the growing demand of homebuyers while still maintaining relatively affordable prices compared to nearby cities.
Housing market trends in Florida’s fastest-growing cities
With more people moving to Florida year after year, housing market trends are shifting.
Builders are trying to keep up with demand, prices are rising, and affordability is becoming a growing concern in certain regions.
Let’s take a deeper dive into how these changes are shaping Florida’s housing landscape.
New Construction vs. Existing Homes: Supply & demand challenges
As we’ve been highlighting, Florida’s booming population has created a housing supply challenge, with demand outpacing the availability of existing homes.
Developers are ramping up new construction to alleviate shortages, but issues such as rising material costs, labor shortages, and zoning restrictions are slowing progress and continuing to tack extra price increases on new construction.
This cost increase on building materials is no joke, with some builders looking at increases of nearly 12% in the past year for some materials, increasing costs for all parties.
Homebuyers are facing even heavier competition when it comes down to highly desirable move-in-ready properties. To help aid with this growing demand, cities across the state are adjusting zoning policies to encourage higher-density developments and affordable housing initiatives.
Rising home prices and affordability concerns
Even with action from the state and increases in new homes, Florida’s real estate market only continues to heat up, with home prices steadily increasing and raising concerns about affordability.
Taking a look at the big picture, the median home price in Florida has risen to $410,000, a 9% increase from the previous year and topping some leaderboards from increases nationwide.
As mentioned earlier, mortgage rates also play a crucial role in influencing buyer purchasing power.
As of early 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in Florida stands at 6.5%, making affordability a growing challenge for first-time buyers without a lot of cash on hand.
While some analysts predict a potential market correction in the middle to end of 2025, strong demand from both local and out-of-state buyers continues to push prices higher and cast doubt on such predictions.
With that being said, renting vs. buying comparisons still indicate that renting remains a viable option in many areas, but as anyone looking to purchase a home knows, long-term equity appreciation makes homeownership an attractive investment, especially in a state like Florida.
Closing thoughts
Florida’s population boom continues to reshape its housing market day in and day out, driving up demand and influencing real estate trends like never before.
As affordability challenges persist, new construction, townhomes, and build-to-rent communities offer potential solutions, but as we discussed, are only a temporary fix. Out-of-state buyers and institutional investors are really putting a strain on the market landscape, impacting home prices and inventory levels and pushing prices up and up.
Looking ahead, the Florida housing market is expected to remain competitive, with shifting buyer demographics and evolving real estate strategies playing a critical role in shaping its future.
Buyers and investors alike must stay informed to navigate the dynamic market effectively. While no one knows what the future will hold for the Sunshine State, it seems apparent that the population numbers are going to continue growing, and with them the need for housing.
